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dc.contributor.authorGe Jen
dc.contributor.authorPolhill JGen
dc.contributor.authorMatthews KBen
dc.contributor.authorMiller DGen
dc.contributor.authorSpencer Men
dc.date.accessioned2019-01-17T10:48:02Z
dc.date.available2019-01-17T10:48:02Z
dc.date.issued2018
dc.identifier.citation13:12en
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0208451
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11262/11572
dc.description.abstractThis paper develops an empirical agent-based model to assess the impacts of Brexit on Scottish cattle farms. We first identify several trends and processes among Scottish cattle farms that were ongoing before Brexit: the lack of succession, the rise of leisure farming, the trend to diversify and industrialise, and, finally, the phenomenon of the “disappearing middle”, characterised by the decline of medium-sized farms and the polarization of farm sizes. We then study the potential impact of Brexit amid the local context and those ongoing social processes. We find that the impact of Brexit is indeed subject to pre-Brexit conditions. For example, whether industrialization is present locally can significantly alter the impact of Brexit. The impact of Brexit also varies by location: we find a clear divide between constituencies in the north (highland and islands), the middle (the central belt) and the south. Finally, we argue that policy analysis of Brexit should consider the heterogeneous social context and the complex social processes under which Brexit occurs. Rather than fitting the world into simple system models and ignoring the evidence when it does not fit, we need to develop policy analysis frameworks that can incorporate real world complexities, so that we can assess the impacts of major events and policy changes in a more meaningful way.en
dc.description.sponsorshipScottish Government RESAS Strategic Research Programme (RD2.4.2)en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.relation.isformatof15008en
dc.relation.ispartofPLoS ONEen
dc.rightsCopyright: © 2018 Ge et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
dc.subjectCattleen
dc.subjectFarmsen
dc.subjectBeefen
dc.subjectAgricultural workersen
dc.subjectLivestocken
dc.subjectAgricultureen
dc.subjectAgricultural productionen
dc.subjectDecision makingen
dc.titleNot one Brexit: how local context and social processes influence policy analysisen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.description.versionVersion of Record
dc.extent.pageNumberse0208451en
rioxxterms.publicationdate2018-12-17
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen
dcterms.dateAccepted2018-11-16
refterms.accessExceptionNAen
refterms.dateDeposit2019-01-17
refterms.depositExceptionpublishedGoldOAen
refterms.depositExceptionExplanationGoldOAen
refterms.panelUnspecifieden
refterms.technicalExceptionNAen
refterms.versionVoRen


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