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dc.contributor.authorHughes Gen
dc.date.accessioned2017-10-11T11:31:18Z
dc.date.available2017-10-11T11:31:18Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.citation55en
dc.identifier.issn0066-4286
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-phyto-080516-035342
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11262/11319
dc.description.abstractThe evidential basis for disease management decision making is provided by data relating to risk factors. The decision process involves an assessment of the evidence leading to taking (or refraining from) action on the basis of a prediction. The primary objective of the decision process is to identify—at the time the decision is made—the control action that provides the best predicted end-of-season outcome, calculated in terms of revenue or another appropriate metric. Data relating to disease risk factors may take a variety of forms (e.g., continuous, discrete, categorical) on measurement scales in a variety of units. Log10-likelihood ratios provide a principled basis for the accumulation of evidence based on such data and allow predictions to be made via Bayesian updating of prior probabilities.en
dc.description.sponsorshipScottish Government RESAS Strategic Research Programme (RD2.1.6)en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.relation.isformatof14692en
dc.relation.ispartofAnnual Review of Phytopathologyen
dc.subjectRisken
dc.subjectRisk factorsen
dc.subjectBayes' ruleen
dc.subjectLikelihood ratiosen
dc.subjectWeight of evidenceen
dc.titleThe evidential basis of decision making in plant disease managementen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.description.versionAccepted manuscript
dc.extent.pageNumbers41-59en
rioxxterms.publicationdate2017-05-10
rioxxterms.typeJournal Article/Reviewen
refterms.accessExceptionpublicationDisallowsOAen
refterms.dateDeposit2017-10-11
refterms.depositExceptionNAen
refterms.panelUnspecifieden
refterms.technicalExceptionNAen
refterms.versionAMen


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