Dynamic drivers of disease in the Scottish livestock sector: an application of a multi-sector, spatial partial equilibrium model
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Farm-level decisions to control animal diseases are influenced by a variety of policy, macroeconomic, and environmental phenomena. Changes in these factors can influence the trajectory of animal disease status over time, with subsequent impacts on the evolution of the livestock and feed sectors of the economy. A qualitative assessment of different drivers of change and horizon scanning identified emerging disease threats in the Scottish cattle and sheep sectors. The drivers in this analysis focused on Scottish legislative changes related to technological uptake and changes to Scotland’s international trade policies due to the European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy reform. This analysis was informed by focus-group discussions with key informants to identify trajectories of change. Validation of these results with simulation analysis is useful to tease out the specific impacts of such changes.
Other Titles/Title of Conference
14th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Merida, Mexico