Scenario planning: the future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease
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The future is highly uncertain. Important drivers of change (e.g. consumer preferences, politics, land-use and commerce) interact to compound risks over long time periods. These determinants influence the nature and structure of livestock industries including their resilience to disease. Although statistical or probabilistic models are utilised to identify risk factors for disease in the near future, these types of studies cannot ascertain the magnitude or importance of determinants or account for immeasurable uncertainties inherent in any predictions of the long-term future.
Other Titles/Title of Conference
14th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics, Merida, Mexico